Here’s That Monumental Evolution Blunder About Probability Again

Did you think that University of Minnesota professor’s blunder about probability was a one-off? Laplace didn’t rebuke this argument two centuries ago for no good reason—the fallacy has been around forever and evolutionists continue to employ it. The argument’s next appearance is in a forthcoming journal article and the evolutionist doesn’t even try to clean it up. It’s the same old argument that if you toss a coin 500 times there are 2^500, or a one with about 150 zeros after it, different possible sequences of heads and tails. Therefore whatever sequence of heads and tails you end up with had an astronomically tiny—one in 2^500—chance of happening. Such a tiny probability is usually considered to be impossible, and yet it happened. The erroneous conclusion is that tiny probability arguments don’t work, and therefore even though evolution has a tiny probability, there’s really no problem with the theory. As the paper explains:

The small probability argument starts out with the legitimate statement that the evolution of complex biological structures, given only Darwinian processes, is very unlikely.

But,

Very small probabilities mean little, as such events can be easily generated. Assume that a given coin is fair, and that our hypothesis H is that the coin is fair, so that it asserts that the probability of heads and tails is each ½, i.e., P(h)=½ and P(t)=½. Consider 5 tosses of this coin and a particular outcome (a certain sequence of heads and tails): P(h,t,t,h,t) = ½ * ½ * ½ * ½ * ½, which is equal to 1 in 2^5. For 70 tosses the probability of a particular outcome P(t,h,t,…) is 1 in 2^70, and for 500 tosses the probability P(t,t,h,…) is 1 in 2^500, which is smaller than 1 in 10^150 and thus smaller than Dembski’s universal probability bound. Inferring the falsity of the hypothesis ‘coin is fair’ because of this extremely small probability would be fallacious; 

It is truly incredible to see evolutionists work their chicanery so they can uphold complete nonsense as the truth. So the evolutionists would credulously accept all manner of bizarre events. If all their roulette wheel bets turned out winners, if their poker hands always gave a royal flush, if random Scrabble letters spelled out CONSTANTINOPLE, it all would be just another small probability event from which nothing can be concluded. This monumental blunder leads them into all kinds of ridiculous conclusions:

Small probabilities have a strange psychological effect on us and can even mislead educated persons into fallacious inferences. For this reason, this issue ought to be clarified when teaching probability theory to high school students. Arbitrarily small probabilities result if one considers the conjunction of different events, and the particular outcome of a sequence of many evolutionary events (such as all mutations in a lineage leading from a remote ancestor to an extant descendant) is no exception. Since complex events (involving many individual events) with small probabilities happen all the time in nature, a small probability suggests neither that the hypothesis postulating this probability is probably false, nor that some intelligent intervention must have taken place.

So there you have it. Their reasoning may seem fallacious, but actually it is merely a “strange psychological effect” that “can even mislead educated persons” and so we must indoctrinate high school students accordingly.

It is yet another example of how the evolutionary thinking is corrupting science and, in this case, basic mathematics.

Religion drives science, and it matters.